Covid-99

Dan O'Heirity

China Has Murdered Half a Million People

I’m going to start today with CCP virus figures before questioning the reliability of those figures. Using my preferred data source – with figures for new daily cases and deaths updated in real time and reset at GMT+0 – there have been 9,910,137 confirmed cases of the CCP virus worldwide. There have been 497,101 deaths worldwide. The daily figures for new cases and new deaths remain extremely high. For example, there were 180,601 new daily cases two days ago and 194,910 new cases yesterday. Two days ago there were 5,183 new deaths and yesterday saw 4,893 new deaths. This means that by tomorrow we will almost certainly have over 10,000,000 CCP virus cases and more than 500,000 CCP deaths. Given that China deliberately released the virus upon the world it is fair enough to say that China will have been responsible for 500,000 CCP murders.

How Reliable is the Covid-19 Data?

When I first started looking at the CCP virus data for Australia – some months ago now – I constantly questioned the reliability of the data because my view was that Australia was carrying out so few tests that we never had any real idea of just how many CCP cases there were in Australia. To my mind, there could quite literally have been hundreds of thousands of CCP virus cases with people having only mild symptoms and, therefore, not presenting at hospitals. Equally, hundreds of thousands of people could have had the asymptomatic strain of the virus which would have meant that they were never counted in the CCP virus data for Australia. The reason that this fact concerned me is that there were constant news stories reports on how Australia was “flattening the curve” of the CCP virus and I did not believe that Australia had the data to be able to make this claim.

One of my main thoughts at the time that I was initially looking at the data was that the number of Covid-19 deaths might somehow indicate the extent of the spread of the virus in Australia. I applied the logic that we could take the number of CCP virus deaths and extrapolate to the likely number of CCP virus cases in Australia. So, for example, taking the random figure of 1,000 deaths and assuming a fatality rate of 5%, we could say that the likely number of CCP virus cases would be 20,000 cases. However, fair to say that I was not particularly confident in my line of reasoning. The reason for this fact is that am not a statistician. Even more so, mathematics is not a particularly strong point for me. So, I left my argument kind of hanging in mid-air whilst waiting for a news report on the issue.

It has taken some time but there is, finally, a report that argues that the number of unexplained deaths in any particular country is an indicator of the reliability of the overall CCP virus data. The reason for this is that if significant numbers of CCP case numbers were being under reported then the cases would show up in “death data” because Covid-19 is lethal for some people who contract the virus. It is important to note here that this argument with respect to deaths is different from my argument. My line of thought included identifying Covid-19 deaths and then making an overall judgement with respect to the number of Covid-19 cases in any particular country. The argument here is that the Covid-19 cases are never identified, including at death. Rather, the cause of death is unexplained.

Australia Can Be Used as a Case Study for Judging the Accuracy of Covid-19 Data

The report makes use of two data sources to come to its conclusions. The first source is “The Economist” which tracks excess deaths across countries. This data coverers the period 2015-2019 and if you’re interested you can take a look at data from Britain, France, Spain, Italy and New York City which tells a different story from the one in Australia. The second source is the Australian “State and Territory Births, Deaths and Marriages Registries” from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This data is used to determine the number of excess deaths that have occurred in Australia during the Covid-19 pandemic period. The same data source is also used to examine death rates across Australia’s different states or jurisdictions. It should be noted here that the Australian Bureau of Statistics only has data on causes of death up to December 2018 and so the data set used is from 2015-2018. It should also be noted that the data set for 2018 is incomplete.

So, on to the analysis for Australia. The researchers used the data for the period 2015-2018 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to look at death rates in Australia and although there are some variations across the different states or jurisdictions in Australia, the argument is that death rates in Australia are really no higher than would be expected in comparison with the data from 2015-2018. Catherine Bennett, the Chair in epidemiology at Deakin University has said that,

Australia does not show the uplift in deaths from the start of the COVID pandemic seen in the other countries, and given these are all coming off winter where we normally see higher death rates, this is even more notable as we do expect some rise as we enter our flu season. The fact that our COVID deaths are not even visible as a fraction of our reported deaths on this scale is a reminder of how successful we have been in keeping our COVID-related death rate so comparatively low.

In other words, the argument is that the death rate is at the normal rate that we would have expected meaning, according to this report, that virus figures are not being underreported and that Australia has not seen an increase in the deaths as a result of Covid-19. There is an additional argument to back this one up. Other countries saw increased death rates in March as a result of Covid-19. This was not the case with Australia.

First Published June 27th, 2020

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